Outwit. Outplay. Outlast. Marry your partner immediately or move on from them forever. These are the taglines (more or less) of CBS’s long running competition reality TV show Survivor, and Netflix’s far newer dating game The Ultimatum. For season two of the latter, Netflix opted to create an entirely queer cast of the show—likely as a pride month promotion, but I’m not complaining either way.

The show is exactly what you would expect and want in a reality dating TV show. It’s messy, with multiple love triangles and failed relationships, as well as some successful ones. We see people making out (and having sex, which dare I say goes too far for what I am comfortable viewing of real people on my screen), screaming, yelling, and crying. If you enjoy reality dating, you already know what to expect, and my review isn’t going to change your mind. In lieu of reviewing the show formally, I’ve decided to rank the cast based on how likely I think they are to win at Survivor.

As always, these are just silly opinions based on the very edited version of these people that were portrayed on TV. I don’t know any of them in real life nor do I know what they’re truly like!

10. Mildred

Mildred tends to fly off the handle at the slightest provocation, interrupting people when they speak and generally believing her opinion is right. In my opinion, these qualities would get her voted off the island immediately on Survivor. People who are too confrontational generally tend to be sent home early, and that would most certainly be the case here.

9. Tiff

I have a soft spot for Tiff, but I admittedly don’t think they would do that well on Survivor. They also have a hard time keeping their cool, tending to scream and become emotional. Add on a lack of food and sleep to the mix, and I have a feeling that Tiff would not be able to stay composed enough to win Survivor. This is also the reason I would lose, so maybe that’s why I like them so much.

8. Xander

Xander is way too much of a people pleaser to make it much further than 8th place in our version of Survivor. They wouldn’t even think about strategy until it was far too late and they looked around to find themselves with no close allies. Xander is a sweetie, but she just doesn’t think that far ahead! She’s very much a live-in-the-moment player who wouldn’t make too many waves, but unfortunately that just doesn’t fly for long on this particular game show.

7. Aussie

Honestly, I could see Aussie being a sleeper agent and placing far higher than 7th. On the show, Aussie’s relationship with Sam was in jeopardy due to Aussie shutting down and walking away from confrontation before it could even occur. On Survivor, this would be an asset in the beginning; nobody would dislike Aussie, because Aussie would never be around to hate. Bonus: all this walking away might lead to Aussie finding an idol.

6. Yoly

Yoly would most definitely do well early on. She’d befriend everyone, choosing the right person to make a “villain” and coasting on multiple alliances with multiple groups of people. However, this unwillingness to pick a side (as well as her inability to stay out of other people’s arguments) would place her directly in the crosshairs for an immediately post-merger blindside.

5. Vanessa

At the end of the day, Vanessa would only make it until after the merger because she is so unathletic that she isn’t a threat to anyone. After that, her discomfort with the outdoors and her general desire to be the loudest person in the room (ignoring her reunion claim that she is no longer like that) will frustrate her castmates enough that they will have to vote her out anyways.

4. Sam

Sam would get this far purely on her ability to be a great person to everyone. While I don’t think she’s the most athletic of the group, making challenges harder, I do think she would have the best social strategy. She was the only one to comfort Tiff after they were screamed at by their (allegedly abusive) ex, and it seems like she is well-liked by her castmates. Ultimately, she’d get voted out because she wouldn’t strategize at all, and that would make her an easy target when the rest of the true targets were taken out.

3. Rae

I’m betting on Rae and her college basketball skills to take her right to the top three! She’s such a sweetie that she’s sure to make more friends than enemies, and her unassuming stature (she’s 5’4″!) mean that people won’t think she’s a threat, even when she’s winning challenges. I don’t think she’ll go all the way—mostly because she will feel to guilty to truly backstab anyone—but she’ll get pretty close.

2. Lexi

While Lexi has the ability and the charisma to win Survivor, the fact that she’s a clear frontrunner will cause her to get voted out right before she can actually win. She claims to be extremely athletic, and is clearly very confident in herself and her skills, and while she seems good enough at making friends to allow this to be overlooked for a while, it will ultimately be her downfall. I can see Lexi as the person who is holding an idol, but fails to play it when she’s voted out.

1. Mal

Without a doubt, Mal has what it takes to win Survivor. Just like Rae, she played college basketball and so is athletic enough to win challenges. When it gets to a Jury vote, everyone will side with her because everyone’s a little bit in love with her. They keep calm in a crisis, are forgiving and willing to overlook people’s mistakes, and they’re just generally a chill person to be around. I fully believe in Mal, and I would love to see them on Survivor (or a Netflix game show) in the future.

Who do you think would win Survivor?